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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear?

XOMA 31.25

-2.9%

2:19 PM EST

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To: Robert K. who wrote (16511)	12/6/2003 10:40:54 AM
From: Robert K.	Read Replies (1) of 17367

Blue>there is/was a poster on sepr board that had access to weekly script counts. The info is out there but I think you must pay for it or be hooked up with a company that has access. I do imagine that raptiva numbers will be available soon but perhaps not readily disseminated. The poster on yahoo had a great thought that true numbers really wont happen until weeks after launch because initially docs might look for test patients to see for themselves cause & effect of Rap. Say you were a real doc (vbg) and Rap came available. And amevive was a flop. You find a worst case patient of yours (or two) and give Rap a go. After 1 week nothing, after 2 weeks nothing, after 3 weeks "maybe" stuff starts to happen. As the weeks roll by things get even better. With some experience with the first patient set you throw a few more patients on rap. The first set is maybe doing pretty darn good, the second set maybe starts to improve. Doctor confidence grows and patient word of mouth spreads. On and on. My point is Rap just shipped on 11/18 and not enough time has elapsed to start to see the above domino effect. The very first patients should start seeing results anytime now. The domino hasnt started yet. The initial Raptiva sales will only be the initial doctor "test" patients. The next wave will start when the first wave "of responders" show improvement. As the first and second set of patients "that respond" continously improve things will REALLY start to roll. IMPORTANT POINT IS> Raptiva is a CONTINUOUS therapy where the patients who are responders "generally" just keep getting better and better. And the sales GROW as each patient that responds gets on and STAYS on. Unlike some other therapies where patient goes on and gets off. The get on and get off therapies have a problem. Every time their patient "gets off" is a opportunity to "get on" raptiva instead. Whereas each patient that gets on RAP will probably stay on Rap if they are a responder. So, what I am trying to say is initial Rap sales wont be a true picture (yet), but might show doctor interest. A month or two into Rap sales will show truer RAP numbers as docs will see responder and non responder picture for themselves. The longer the responder stays on rap the more confident docs will become with hooking up a lot more patients to rap. Hooking up is a good term cause once you are on RAP and if you respond good you will be HOOKED. Perhaps your doctor too. Standard disclaimers always. NO facts all IMO. do you own DD. >Larry , you are free to repost this if you want.

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