Aides to Dr. Dean's rivals argued that the perception that Dr. Dean may have nailed down the nomination would create a case of buyer's remorse, which frequently happens in presidential primary campaigns, in time for an alternative to Dr. Dean to emerge. As it is, several Democrats in Washington have expressed concern that Dr. Dean could lead his party to a rout in the general election, given his lack of experience in running national campaigns, and a résumé that includes no foreign policy experience in a campaign where foreign policy could be a central theme.
"It's almost as if nobody's focused on this yet," said Joe Lockhart, who was White House spokesman under President Bill Clinton. "In my view, we shouldn't go forward and elect someone who we don't think is electable. It could be that Dean will make a compelling case as to why he is. He has not done that yet. We ought to have that debate now and not in March."
Mr. Lockhart said the sense of concern was strong among many Democrats in Washington, and recalled the difficulty Michael S. Dukakis, the former governor of Massachusetts, encountered when he ran for president in 1988. Mr. Lockhart served as a deputy press secretary to Mr. Dukakis.
"You remember this from '88: in a lot of the country, we couldn't go places," he said. "Members wouldn't appear with us. That could happen again."
Beyond that, several Democrats noted, the framework of the race changes virtually the day after New Hampshire, moving almost immediately from the relatively intimate gatherings in living rooms and town halls, which play to Dr. Dean's strength, to television, which may not.
Of all the states with contests on Feb. 3, South Carolina is drawing the most attention, with Mr. Edwards, General Clark, Mr. Gephardt, Mr. Kerry and the Rev. Al Sharpton looking for a strong showing there. Advisers to Mr. Edwards and General Clark, who is from Arkansas, both asserted that South Carolina was particularly strong ground for their candidates because they are from the South.
One important factor in the outcome in these states is how Mr. Lieberman, Mr. Edwards and Mr. Clark do in New Hampshire. With signs that support for Mr. Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, is collapsing there, General Clark, Mr. Edwards and Mr. Lieberman have all ramped up their efforts in that state.
Aides to General Clark say they now believe he could come in second in New Hampshire. A senior aide to Mr. Lieberman, Brian Hardwick, argued that his candidate would defeat General Clark there. |
