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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Ruffian who wrote (2833)12/6/2003 5:08:17 PM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
<You are 100% on the money>

Hi Ruffian. Between 1980 and 1996, Gold had three bull markets. The first topped at $US 510 in February 1983. The second topped at $US 500 in December 1987. The third topped at $US 414 in February 1996. Gold has now almost regained its February 1996 high. Once Gold surpasses $US 414, there is very little remaining resistance below $US 500. If you haven't got any Gold yet, or regard your Gold holding as insufficient, be warned.

$US 400 has been cracked, but not quite yet broken. There is still a residual nervousness that this new level will hold. Remember, Gold poked its nose above the $US 300 level back in September 2001 but it took until late March 2003 before the $US 2003 level was definitely broken - it took that long for Gold to close above $US 310.

Once that happened, investors stopped "looking down" and started "looking up". The same thing will happen with $US 400, and it is a VERY good bet IMHO that it won't take as long as the $US 300 hurdle did. Once confidence on that score develops, Gold AND Gold stocks have a high potential to REALLY take off.

Now all that needs to happen is for enough investors to become confident (if not certain) that Gold won't go back BELOW $US 400. Once that happens, LOOK OUT ABOVE.

Gold stock investors in particular are still looking back at where Gold has been rather than looking foward to where it is going. Fear is still overcoming greed, so far. Gold stocks will take off as soon as investors are confident that Gold is not going back below $US 400. That could take place on any Comex spot future Gold close between $US 410 and $420.
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