Perhaps there are 150 years of proven reserves, but in the grand scheme of things that's not really the figure that matters. When peak production is reached, the supply of oil will start shrinking (even as demand continues to rise) and the price of oil will begin a long push higher that will eventually make it so expensive that alternatives will become cost competitive and the Age of Oil will be over. I could see us still using oil in 150 years, but will it be our central fuel supply, probably not.
So, it is correct for those articles to focus on when the peak production for oil is reached. That will herald the end of the oil age as we know it. As they pointed out, we might not know when the actual production peak was reached for years to come. As you pointed out, oil production has probably been falling over the past 3 years because of the international recession. However, if it stays stable or even falls some more as the economy picks up this decade, we'll know peak production has been reached. Also, alternatives like solar, hydrogen/fuel cells, electric will continue to make slow progress this decade with perhaps a major breakthrough or two that will make them more cost competitive.
All I can say is that for the first time in my life, I can see the End of Oil Age on the horizon. Perhaps it won't happen this decade, but by 2020 we'll have real alternatives to oil (we already do if you're progressive minded enough to use an electric car for your local driving) or if you're into stuff like BioDiesel or Ethanol. |
