"It's Dean."
and
The media cycle of 'the inevitable Dean nomination' is going to last until someone - presumably and preferably Clark - shows signs of closing the gap on him.
In the sense that it's his to loose, I agree that Dean already has the nomination. Can he loose it? Surely. But if he doesn't stumble, I don't think anyone else can win it. It's a matter of time, money and momentum. Interestingly, this is in large part because the Clinton (New Democrate) wing of the party decided they wanted a front loaded primary season, and now their candidate (Clark) just doesn't have the time to "catch fire".
A question in my mind - is Dean peaking too soon? Say he wins the nomination before St. Pats day. For the hard core Demos, ABB (Anybody But Bush) is fine. But for the middle political third of the country, who usually don't get fired up about an election until it is imminent, it will be - Dean who? And you can bet that Rove will be happy to provide an answer. If the Demos suffer some "Buyer's Remorse", we could have the election decided before Memorial Day.
OTOH, the election is almost a year away - and that's a long time in politics. Consider a year ago, with the Admin pontificating that the inability of the UN inspectors to find WMDs was proof that Saddam was hiding them. After all, von Rumsfeld "knew" exactly where they were. And Bush, Cheney et al, in speech after speech, by careful choice of words, consistently linked Iraq and 9-11. All with a compliant press never exhibiting a scintilla of doubt in the validity of these now discredited theses.
So given the length of time between now and the election, and the fact that it's twin hinges (the economy and Iraq) can still swing in unexpected ways, it's a little early to be calling the election yet - no matter who the candidates are?
JMO
lurqer |
