WHO IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004 Message Board

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Politics : WHO IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004

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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (7130)	12/7/2003 11:43:40 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) of 10965

Dean is kinda screwed when it comes to delegates: Dem delegates are awarded per percentage of each state vote. No winner take all states as in the GOP. That means if Dean were to get 25% of the total vote nationally he'd arrive with only 25% of the allocated delegates. I see 25% as about the peak of the anti-war left vote in the party. But it's worse than that actually. 37% of delegates are held back from the entire process. These are owned by top Democrat officials and the DNC itself. They can cast their votes any way they want regardless of voter sentiment. They use these delegates as bargaining chips and safety cushions. That's where endorsements and party unity come into play. Guys like Kerry, Lieberman and Gephardt have loads of Super Delegates commited to them to start. I don't believe Dean has more than a half dozen. Together with the DNC therefore, they can effectively block almost anyone's nomination. This practice was put into effect in order to stop George Wallace, Jesse Jackson, Eugene McCarthy (and Howard Dean?) type candidacies fueled by any angry "extremist" wing of the party (ie unelectables) from hijacking the party after a few scares in the past. Did you know that if he hadn't been shot angry voter outsider segregationist George Wallace might have won the nomination - when was it back in 1972? Jesse Jackson did so well in the south he had a chance at it too. Even Paul Tsongas gave the party a scare before he started sliding back down. The bottomline for Dean is that the very lucky break that helps him (being the only major anti war candidate as the war gets F'ed up) also hurts him because he's running against three very powerful party powers loaded with Super Delegates plus Clark and Edwards, any or all of whom will end up with more than 10% of the delegates each. He will therefore need at least most of them to endorse him in order to win. Dean also has a problem with the DNC and DLC. His rise was partly due to the Naderite type anti-establishment anger, blaming the Dem establishment for being "Bush lite' and promsing sweeping changes. Well that means the entire DNC would lose their jobs if Dean takes power. SO he can forget about those Super Delegates. They alone make up about 8% of the total needed to win. All this is why I think it is more and more logical than Al Gore come in and unite everyone. But first we need to run a few primaries and actually see who votes for who.

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