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Politics : WHO IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004
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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (7130)12/7/2003 12:01:02 PM
From: American Spirit  Read Replies (2) of 10965
 
The breakdown of the delegate votes is as follows:

3530 Base delegate votes - awarded by percentage of vote in each state (no winner take all states)

797 Super Delegates - owned by Officials and the DNC who can vote any way they want.

TOTAL: 4317 delegate votes, 2159 needed to win

* Since Dean is getting almost no Super Delegate help and it not likely to endorsed by any other candidate except Kucinich, he would need over 60% of the total votes cast to win if the party wanted to block him.

More likely Dean will get about 25% of the total votes, which is a strong showing. He will pray that other major candidates drop out, but if they don't (and the party may press them to stay in to collect delegates) then the final split may turn out somethng like this, if current trends continue.

Dean - 25%
Clark, Kerry, Lieberman, Gephardt, Edwards - 65% together
Others - 10%

Then the Also-Ran Five will also control some 450 Super Delegates. Dean may get 150 or so. The DNC will control the other 200 or so.

* Dean may get only 1000 delegates by convention time even if he wins more than half the primaries.

* This has all the makings of either a total gridlock, the #2 and #3 candidates teaming up or Al Gore entering to unite the party.
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