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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: Al Serrao who wrote (5813)8/12/1997 7:06:00 PM
From: Joe S Pack   of 50167
 
Ike,
A few days back you mentioned that the overall market valuation of
stocks are at PE of 23 which you felt was very high compared to earnings of US corporations. If the market is to correct 10%, then
it will leave the PE valuation at 20 plus changes. Will that be a
reasonable range? Or should we need 20% correction to reach the
stage of 18.4 to be a sensible value to make the next bull move?
Or should we go down further say 25% to make the PE valuation
to be around 17 to become more sensible. Even if the market has
to correct by 20% at 8200 level, we will have to continue the
current south bound movement for another couple of weeks to reach
a value beloew 7000.
Now that one of our leaders AMAT says that they are in good shape
and their upbeat numbers (+7 cents earnings over 1st Call mean and order backlog of 1.64B) makes them really in a position to move ahead
of the pack. Will that give incentive for the SOXX to hold tight or
move north while others move down south?
What will happend to our beloved father and mother?
It seems there is further opportunity for buying ASND at a lower price.

Ike, don't feel bad for the current confusion. You often tell us
that we have to have firm discipline in trading. But greed sometimes
cloud our discipline and control and we often pay for such flirtations.
For example, I wanted to gamble a few hundred dollars on IFMX
based on rumour
and the degree of interest shown by the herd on Aug. 12.5 calls
and paid for it. I learned a valuable lession with a few hundred
dollars. So breaking the discipline and control should be taken as
a valuable lession. Another thing we all should have in mind is that
we are not god and we cannot predict everything correct. All we need
is high %age of correct calls.
As Warren Buffett said all one needs is a one bear market to be rich
or 20 correct calls in life to become rich. We have lot of time
left in our life time and if we follow your suggestion I am sure we will have hundreds of calls within a couple of years.

Since you are a host of this thread you should feel bad for wrong calls but cheer us not to become sad. You should teach us what went
wrong and help in making sure that these mistakes will not be repeated in future.
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