One Campaign Rising, One Holding Strong, One On The Way Out
moderateindependent.com
<<...DECEMBER 5, 2003 – The story line for the 2004 Democratic Presidential nomination has changed drastically over the past few weeks. Unlike the mainstream press, we cover the trends as they actually occur, not months afterwards only when we finally decide to give up the preplanned story line we have been running with.
All over the mainstream and right-wing press (which are virtually indistinguishable at this point,) you will see all Dean coverage all the time. He is the frontrunner, the one who they deem will win. They write well about him, they write badly about him, but, in unison, they write virtually only about him. Gephardt is number two, and Kerry is trying to hold on to number three, their story goes.
Well, men and women of the mainstream press, sorry to break it to you, but the story is the rise of the General and the death of the Kerry campaign.
Look first simply at the polls: Clark is statistically tied for the lead in South Carolina, he is tied for the lead in Florida, tied for the lead in Oklahoma. Most significantly, he is tied now with Kerry for second place in New Hampshire.
For the people who only read the mainstream press this may seem a shock – how did this man come from the depths of nothingness to become a seemingly potent challenger, you might ask yourself.
But for anyone following the dynamics of the campaign, you have seen this coming.
Make no mistake, Governor Dean’s awesomely run campaign continues to run awesomely. Continued innovations, such as a multi-state party, makes it convenient for all excited supporters to attend fundraisers which Dean (via conference call) will be a part of. More strategically, these will be held in many of the second round of primary states. For instance, one part of this mass party will be held in Tucson, Arizona. It will attract caravans of supporters from all over the western states to not only raise funds for the campaign, not only keep supporters engaged and excited, but make a show in this important, second round state.
Anyone who is paying attention has to admit, this Dean team is an inspirational thing to watch and learn from.
And yet, General Wesley Clark is gaining on the Vermont Governor – and quickly.
All of the excitement Dean generated at first is now surging among Clark supporters. And what is working for the General most is that he seems a reassuring embodiment of the best three other candidates have to offer: Dean’s straight talking and outsider status; Kerry’s veteran status; and Edwards’ southerner status and personal charm.
In addition, he seems, to his supporters, to bring the best of all three of these campaigns together while leaving behind the negatives: Dean’s knack for misspeaking and draft dodger status; Kerry’s sluggish campaign and lack of ability to connect with people; and Edwards’ lack of experience and gravitas.
The Kerry campaign believed Clark’s entry would help their campaign. As a campaign insider said, they thought people would start seeing the Democrats had military experience, but notice Kerry brought the domestic experience and diplomatic experience as well, and so see him as a more complete version of the General.
However, they weren't expecting Clark’s charm. Call it southern charm or just his nature, his supporters are excited and very moved and inspired after they meet him; Kerry’s supporters simply say, “He wasn’t so bad as they say,” yet don’t truly feel he was speaking straight to them from the heart.
Indeed, the most compelling thing General Clark seems to have done is present himself humbly. Supporters tell how he looks them directly in the eye and says, “I need your help – can I count on you?” Hearing this from a powerful ex-General is enough to breed loyalty and enthusiasm. And so the ranks of the General's volunteer base has been swelling, his standing in the polls is elevating, and clearly – though the rest of the press is not reporting it yet – the General is nipping at the heels of Howard Dean.
Aiding this is the underlying fear on the part of many of even the most fervent Dean supporters that he is simply not charismatic enough to win the general election, and that his draft dodger status adds to that. They had stuck with Dean because the only other options were a poorly run Kerry campaign or never-showed-he-can-do-it-over-two-decades Gephardt campaign. The General's arrival has them beginning not only to eye his camp, but beginning to join it. Indeed, even at the grassroots level, General Clark is starting to outpoll Dean among Democratic clubs Dean once dominated.
On the other extreme is the complete death and demise of the Kerry campaign.
The campaign chose to put all of its eggs in the New Hampshire basket. That is a fine strategy, but in doing so, they chose not to embrace their supporters in other places. Tell me, what sort of campaign puts a cold arm’s length between its supporters and itself? Right, a loser one, and that is what the Kerry camp is finding out, even if they might not realize it yet.
The Kerry camp is running and old fashioned operation. They are focusing heavily (if not solely) on the first two contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, seeking big political endorsements rather than grassroots support, and have not at any point gotten their internet act in gear. Their operation has been ineffective at best, amateurish at worst.
Why they couldn’t handle such simple easy things comes down to one thing: the campaign’s attitude. It is, dare we say, an aloof campaign. Like the candidate has been criticized for years as not being able to connect with people, the campaign, through very specific choices and a seeming fear of its own would-be supporters, left an opening of alienation and frustration it created within its base through neglect. And for a base that was largely standing with Kerry due to his military veteran status, they were prime for the taking when General Clark came around.
And, invigorated by Clark's excellently run campaign, they are flocking over in droves. Just note the changes in the latest New Hampshire polls: Kerry down 4 percent, Clark up 4 percent. That is not coincidence and should have been expected by anyone who has been paying attention.
Indeed, Kerry is now polling in a number of places, including South Carolina where he launched his campaign, down with people who aren’t even running campaigns. In SC, he is down with Mosley-Braun (significantly behind even Sharpton.) In Iowa, he is barely ahead of Clark and Edwards, who are not even campaigning there, according to one recent poll. More and more his campaign seems to be becoming irrelevant. There is still time to fix it, but it seems unlikely.
As for the other three near-top-tier candidates, each has one real strength, but not much beyond that.
The Lieberman campaign truly has the most winning focus of any campaign. Its relentless focus is on “integrity.” The other campaigns are potentially setting themselves up for a dangerous fall with their focuses on the Iraq situation and the economy. What if the economy turns around and Saddam is caught in October? The other camps seem to make the case that, well, then maybe we were wrong and the President should stay.
Lieberman, on the other hand, makes clear that, “It is the lack of integrity, stupid.” Even if the economy was perfect and the country at peace, President Bush needs to go, his line of attack says, because he lacks proper moral values and basic integrity (read honesty.)
In fact, this is what underlies many of the campaigns, but only the Lieberman camp is making this event-proof issue its campaign frontpiece. For this, they should be commended.
But Joe himself has not caught traction. It is tough being a right-of-center moderate in a Democratic primary, and we feel for Joe in this instance. But also, he is not the most exciting speaker, and after all, this is politics, and a political frontman should be inspirational, ala Reagan, Clinton, and the current President Bush (his father wasn’t, and that’s why he wasn’t re-elected.)
The Edwards camp's focus on presenting a positive message is nice, but they haven’t actually presented one – just the idea that they – or the others – should present one. Unfortunately for John, in this post 9-11 world, he is not the right man at the right moment. But the other camps would do well to take his advice and put together a comprehensive positive vision. All of the campaigns, except for Lieberman’s, are a hodge podge of responses and specific issue stances. They talk of focusing on renewable energy, but don’t paint themselves as the Sun President. They talk of having a good plan for the future, but don’t talk about leading the great nation of America into its Golden Era. And most importantly, as Edwards' plea for positivity touches on, the American people want nothing more than a candidate who will tell them, “It doesn’t have to be this way. It doesn’t have to be war and terror and slash and burn at home. It can be prosperity beyond their wildest dreams (by harnessing the wealth generated by alternative energy,) peace to last for generations, and a cleaner, kinder, happier America that embraces freedom and democracy so fully that it shines like it used to as a beacon to inspire the rest of the world.”
Then there is Gephardt. Issue man. He is charming, strong, presents himself well, and has stands people love on the issues. But by his campaign’s own admission, they act like old-time plodding turtles. People don’t see the fresh ideas campaign-wise and rapid-fire type action they are looking for this year. And truly, his lack of military experience makes him seem a lesser choice. Why this weighs on him much more heavily than Dean, or even Lieberman, seems to be simply his nature and the focus of his work in the Congress. Dean is a firebrand, Lieberman has been very strongly involved in foreign affairs. Gephardt seems more suited to be labor secretary than President in many people’s eyes.
A couple questions:
Mosely-Braun didn’t even manage to file papers in time to get on the primary ballot in Oklahoma. With it so clear she is not actually running a real campaign, why won’t she do the party a favor a stop taking up space on the stage during the debates?
Congressman Kucinich, we don’t need to see you yell anymore. All you do at the debates is give angry, insulting responses that aren’t gaining you support. So again, why not help the party and remove yourself? (Video dating is not supposed to work this way.)
Rev. Sharpton, please DO NOT drop out of the race. You are truly the only master of rhetoric out there, and if you stay around long enough, not only will you continue to keep things entertaining, but you might rub off a bit more on whoever becomes the eventual nominee, making the coming Presidential race that much more fun for all of us.
In the end, the reality at this point is this has become a three man race: Dean leading, Clark nipping at his heels, and Gephardt presenting a still-strong third.
But if we had to predict what things will look like a month or so from now, we at The Moderate Independent expect to see General Clark move up to at least an equal footing with Governor Dean, and, in the end, it is coming more and more to seem the General is the one who Democrats will trust to take their fight to the GOP in the end.
The coming debate this Tuesday in New Hampshire is the perfect moment for this race. If the General makes a strong show, he will solidify his move into second place there, while Governor Dean can firm up his hold on first or leave open the chance for a late charge from General Clark. Finally, a debate worth watching...>> |
