It's Kerry's fault for not articulating his message to the voters.
I think that many people see Kerry as an insider. He voted for the war in Iraq. Then he voted against the Iraq $87 billion funding. People see an inconsistency there, and Kerry has not articulated his opposition to the war as well as Dean.
In fact Kerry raised his anti war rhetoric after Dean had success in stirring the anti-war movement among the younger voters and internet savvy voters. So here he's seen as a Johnny come lately to the anti war position.
I think that as much as Dean has taken the left part of the party, which is generally anti war to begin with, he's captured the bottom end (younger end) of the party as well. Heck these are the people that will have their lives directly impacted if Bush is re-selected and a draft is re-instituted.
Kerry has instead of focusing on issues and talking to the people, has spent more focus on Photo ops and his hair style. If Kerry want to be president now, he's going to need to stump everyday from now until January, and he'll have to pick up at least 5 points per week in the polls, or he's done.
Dean has done an effective job of capturing the the majority of the party's support. If you were to narrow the focus to the top three candidates, Dean would likely take a majority if 6 of the 9 stepped down today. In fact in many states Kerry isn't in the top three.
The question remains, can Dean after winning the nomination with the support of the left, come back and win the general election by getting the support of the center? That depends on a lot of things of course, and much of that depends on the performance of Bush. If Bush comes out and starts talking about putting a man on the moon, he's toast in my opinion, even if Iraq starts going well.
I think that Dean can get the support of the middle, because he can campaign hard on being a fiscal conservative. At the same time he can show that he supports jobs and health care. Two huge issues for most people.
I can't wait to hear Bush announce that he will put a man on the moon. That will seal his fate completely.
Orca |
