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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: yard_man who wrote (2959)12/8/2003 8:21:08 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
The only scenario that I can see that might stabilize the dollar is a vigorous interest rate defense, and an attempt to cool off consumer spending, and encourage savings. I'm not aware of any of those being proposed as policy at this point, so I'd have to say Faber is early on the big picture. If we had the right language (removing the "considerable time" term or stronger) from the Fed Tuesday we could see a little USD bounce, and minor gold selloff, but that's about it IMO (unless the follow on hikes were quick and aggressive). I don't think energy will miss a beat. We could see a big stock market selloff if we had that language. In the bond market we would get a selloff in the short end, but it might be possible for the long end to hold, especially if there was an indication rate increases were coming quickly. I think the market pressures for the Fed to start hiking will be relentless though.
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