Started very a small exploratory position in eastern coal hauler, NSC, today.
In an interview w/Jeffrey Gendell in Barron's this week, he is VERY positive on steel and coal. (Also housing, but that's another story) He expects an export boom driven by commodities. Very interesting to me, because I frequently have seen his name show up as a HEAVY buyer of dinky, small banks when I've gone researching them when they show up on my screens. I've never found any of these banks strike me as especially attractive, so I've wondered why this character is going around the country establishing large positions in them.
Well, another of his bets - and according to the Barron's tout, he has a VERY good track record for anticipating these things - is that coal demand (increasing because of favorable shipping rates from USA ports) will propel the employment and economies of eastern USA cities where people live who will do the mining. Thus, the local banks should prosper and thrive in a multiple number of ways - increased deposits, increased loan demands.
Can't say whether everyone now is too aware of the demand China is placing or will place on commodities - coal stocks are at highs after all. So is NSC; so only a most small bet for me now until I understand the situation a little better. If coal production is going to significantly increase as the stocks/stock market seems to be saying - metalurgical for China build out, and/or heating coal for USA people - NSC will haul its share. |
