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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks

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To: Larry S. who wrote (49957)	12/8/2003 9:46:28 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (2) of 53068

Larry: I agree with you on TOY, and wouldn't touch the stock long unless it first tests the low 10s. My guess is that the company will miss their revenue and earnings guidance in the all-important Christmas quarter, and that the stock will get hammered to the low to high 8s. I covered my short today, but would put it back on if it rallies to the high 10s - low 11s. TOY was down 1.4% in today's strong market. That doesn't bode well for the stock, especially considering that it has already been beaten down to what many people would consider a "value" price. I question why any stock is trading at such a low valuation in today's market. This is especially true for a retailer, when many retail stocks are not only making 52 week highs, but also all time highs. I view this as a negative indicator for TOY, not a positive one, and hope that the strong market gives the stock a lift so I can short it again at a higher price than where I covered. TOY is trading at a valuation that I would expect to see during a bear market. The fact that it is trading here during a bull market is an ominous sign of poor future fundamentals.

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