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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (3013)12/9/2003 3:28:22 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
From what I know France has most of it's electricity from Nuclear Reactors and exports it to Italy. Germany has plenty of coal. Italy is an energy importer. DO not have concrete figures as to energy imports into Euro Zone.

In any case from what I read the EUR target was around 1.15 for this year and 1.17 for 2004 to maintain the economy rolling.

We are about 5% to 6% above this target and it is generally accepted that EZ exports drop around 1% for each 1% rise in the EUR/USD level.

The first to be hit will be the EZ exporters and therefore the drop in share prices.

As to the world economy due to high sea freight rates and heighten demand for food from India China and other SE Asia countries and the lower UDX the economic activity in the US will rise substantially as more grains will be exported and also more semifinished goods.

Price of alumna or iron ore v. freight cost is relatively very high and it would be more cost effective to send via sea freight semi finished goods.

Further the hot issue of steel is "passé" as the UDX dropped around 27% since 2001, and freight rose 200%.

IMHO the economic rebound in the US is for real now and the main issue is the pile of debt which will be worked out in due time as a result of FX rates and natural growth.

If not for the high pile of debt we would have real prosperity in the US by now.

BWDIK

Haim
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