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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (42610)12/9/2003 6:41:30 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (4) of 74559
 
Hi Jay, <<The Taiwan-China issue ... The wood and fuel for a ferocious USD couter-trend rally of material proportions may be already piled high and soaked plenty, and the spark may be evident, and there must be plenty of shorts to be incinerated by the fantasy of multiple nuclear fires.>>

... I want to emphasize that I am only deeply worried about a sharp/sustained rally of the USD IF AND ONLY IF the Taiwan situation develops in a way that see tension sharply rise, and that can happen easily if Bush had said something like 'the future of Taiwan should be determined by the Taiwanese' as opposed to 'We oppose any unilateral decision to change, by either China or Taiwan, to change the status quo, and the comments and actions made by the leader of Taiwan indicate that he may be willing to make decisions unilaterally to change the status quo -- which we oppose.'

Now we get to watch what will happen next on the Taiwan drama.

Short of Taiwan, there are preciously few triggers (i.e. ECB says 'we will also print, with the aim to keep USD high'?) for any sustainable USD rally, however sharp, because there are too many triggers for further sharp losses in the USD, and there are no apparent breaks to the USD slide.

Chugs, Jay
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