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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: gumnam who wrote (42847)12/9/2003 7:57:52 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Hi gumnam,

What do they want from China is IMHO

1) Obviously more imports of American goods - planes, farm equipment, agricultural stuff. Obviously beneficiary is Boeing. Any ideas who else could be the undeserving winners?

2) Even more importantly, US needs China's help in stabilizing the US treasury markets. We need some one to buy 10 year US Treasury. THis is key to holding the charade up at least till Nov 2004.


I would disagree. The number one issue for the United States is stability in Asia in general, and to be quite specific, North Korea in particular. The military of the USA is quite stretched now between Iraq and Afghanistan. They can ill afford a crisis anywhere in Asia. Politically speaking, the United States needs a very stable China for any attempts to deal with North Korea. Any action(s) by Taiwan that run contrary to a stable China run contrary to the current interests of the United States. Therefore, the Bush administration will in no way support any hint of Taiwan independence, and will so inform the Taiwanese government, which they have already done, quite bluntly without the usual diplomatic bullshit that accompanies these statements.

While the issues you raise are also quite important, an unstable Asia would serve to undermine the military efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as severely disrupt the global and domestic economies of both China and the USA. The USA does not wish to challenge China over the issue of Taiwan, and prefers that China remain more or less as an ally rather than returning to cold war politics in the region.

Just my opinion, of course...

KJC
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