Been away but now am back....
Generally, during my absence, my portfolio made a round trip, too....higher at first, then with the fall in natural resources the last two days, all the way back to where it began, with now a bearish trend, given the last couple of days' action..
Haven't changed the makeup much....25% miners and metal, 30% Energy (55% E&Ps 45% RTs), 15% in an assortment of "general equities", the most promising and largest being OMNI...and the remainder, about 30%, in cash, fixed income (FAX), pipeline (NBP) and REIT (RRE)....
E&Ps include APA MUR ECA TBI and in the smaller cap arena, CRED ROYL and TGA...
Quite obviously should have been paying more attention beginning Monday of this week....seems Barron's did the miners in....or gave them a push off what really were not very good looking short term perches..Have to agree with, you Valutrader, the time doesn't really look quite ripe to get aggressive on the buy side. Looks as if we'll be dancing with 50 day EMAs for a while.
I had been thinking we would see a pretty good rout at the very beginning of the year as people took profits in the new year...maybe we saw some of that already....The most smart likely were short selling miners they didn't own, hedging those they did or were selling calls....
CanRoys doing fine, still .... did sell POG as a means of lightening up among the more extended E&Ps....
You all might wish to check out OMNI...a helicopter company involved in oil service that seems to have just made a great acquisition, gotten past some large position selling and making new highs....Earnings and cashflow improvements should really start showing up with the reports of the last quarter '03 and first of '04.
Have to admit to JimW my having been wrong about the CRB having seen its high for the year....a thought expressed on its test of 242 a couple weeks back....obviously, Old Man Winter and Natural Gas prices had something to say about that.... Gold and Silver's late reversals today are non too pretty, but the miners seems to have anticipated more...The stock market looks fragile though every time I think that it rallies...
Gallemore's CRB charts...
chartingyourfutures.com
HUI P&F - rather interested in what happens at 220 and 212...particularly
stockcharts.com[PA][DA][F!3!!]&pref=G&listNum=
HUI - guess I'd be a buyer in the 214-16 area....
stockcharts.com[h,a]dbcayiay[db][pb40!c50!f][vc60][iut!Ul14!Up14,3,3!Le12,26,9!Lb14!Lya7,14,28]&pref=G
GREAT to see the ETF for GOLD off to such a good start in London, though it does appear to have marked a certain short term top....Yahoo symbol is GBSX.L finance.yahoo.com
Volume was over 2 million...pretty good start...
Have lots of reading and other things to catch up on....catch up to you all tomorrow..... |
