"BIG PICTURE" wise, I wouldn't worry about how much higher the market can go. There is a lot of room to run, given stronger economic fundies going forward. Ignore the doom and gloom calls about how the market can't go up from here.
I think we are seeing a concerted effort to get people to sell at this level. Mostly to shake people out after nice gains and prey on their worries about another big move down in the market. Lots of stocks got totally abused last year and the % gains seen, since the bottom, have been tremendous for many stocks. However, there are plenty of laggards out there. Also, there are plenty of stocks that are just starting to show improvements which have yet to appreciate.
The key, as always, is to pick the proper stocks. Sell the lofty valuations, buy the cheap and trade the mo-mos. The market will be substantially higher 9 months from now, imo. However, the next month or few weeks could be the perfect time for a correction and irrational pessimism. One thing to keep in mind for 2004, the stocks that have had 100s or 1000s% increases in 2003 are usually the ones that get taken out and shot in the next year. Similarly, many of the stocks that have sold off or have not participated in the 2003 rally won't participate in the 2004 rally - because they are flat out dogs! There are plenty of "good stories" out there in the market. You just need to find them.
Maybe it's time to start collecting ideas from the thread members on potential home runs for 2004? |
