Andrew, first the HUI Bull times. I have not changed any of the channel lines, or blue path lines.
When I laid this out I assumed the red i, iii and v (not shown), and the red ii and iv would be somewhat equal in time, with perhaps the latter waves increasing a tad. I don't know if this count is correct, OTOH I could not come up with any count that does not have a major wave left to go. This thus was a big part of my decision to stay for more LT. Other equities that I counted appear the same, in the latter regard.
For the count to remain valid the channel line should not break here, it may touch, but even that would be a little odd. Additionally, the red iv (present path) should not correct much if any below the top of the red i, at a limit. The two are mutually compatible, at 223 or so to be exact. If a break happens I have to trash this and go find an alternate. A next count alternate would probably be up one degree - i.e. I would have this now at the black 4.
ttrader.com\'s%20charts&id=427&d=2
In looking at your retracement fib, which would be most compatible with the alternate count mentioned, I get (can't chart the lowest %), some violent possibilities, same as yours.
ttrader.com\'s%20charts&id=427&d=2
If I do a fib retrace of what I think consistent with my current count, I get something of real interest to me - a 50% retrace of this wave at about 223. I happen to think we are very near a bottom, but I can't tell if it is just the A portion of a much larger move down, consistent with your retrace. We finished day 7 of what I thought should be a 7/10 day correction.
If this a red iv or a 4, in either case, it could come rocketing up out of the hole pretty quickly. That is the nature of this type of correction. They are hard to trade. I thought it winding down when I left for work this morning, then boom.
ttrader.com\'s%20charts&id=427&d=2
One should also remain cognizant of the surroundings - namely the dollar and gold futs. Although the dollar is heading towards an IT bottom I still have more down here, I have it in ii of 3 (for this wavelet). Feb gold futs broke up imo, and I have them in a little iv type minor correction as well, that will last yet a few days. HUI appears to be leading slightly. No channel breaks on POG yet either. Assuming this holds the next move up in POG takes it up over 420. IMHO.
Am yet staying the course, you can imagine about where my stops are. |
