Lizzie on electoral geography:
Looking at the last election from the CNN website, it appears that these states, outside of the south went Bush but were within 4 points: Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Tennessee (I guess TN is the hard south? not sure). There was an 8 pt Bush victory in AZ. I would start with those states if I were Dean. NV and AZ are very environmentally conscience with the whole Los Alamos history, I'll bet there is some weakness for Bush there.
Message 19583269
Comments:
1. Tennessee is a Southern State. The ground there is about as hard as in other places. It was always in the South on the maps I learned in school, and the last ten times or so I visited there it was still in the same place. It was part of the Confederacy. It's the home of Jack Daniels. Most tellingly, Tennessee favorite son Al Gore ran for President in 2000 and would have been elected had he carried his home state. Which he did not. So how a non-Tennessee candidate will succeed where Gore failed is an interesting question.
2. "NV and AZ are very environmentally conscience with the whole Los Alamos history, I'll bet there is some weakness for Bush there." Los Alamos is in New Mexico, a state which was so close in 2000 it took several days to figure out who won. Los Alamos is not in Nevada or in Arizona.
3. Arizonans may be environmentally "conscious" (conscience is a different word altogether), but they don't tend to vote for Democrats very often in Presidential elections. Quick: who was the last Democrat for whom a majority of voters in Arizona voted in a Presidential election?
The answer is Harry Truman. Clinton won the state narrowly in 1996 due to the Perot vote.
Percentage of votes won by Democratic candidates in Arizona in past elections:
2000: Gore 44.7
1996: Clinton 46.5
1992: Clinton 36.5
1988: Dukakis 39
1984: Mondale 32.5
1980: Carter 28.2
1976: Carter 39.8
1972: McGovern 30.4
1968: Humphrey 35.0
1964: Johnson 49.4
1960: Kennedy 44.4
1956: Stevenson 38.9
1952: Stevenson 41.7
1948: Truman 53.8
4. New Hampshire and Nevada are closer to being true swing states, but they too lean heavily Republican. The last time either state voted majority Democratic in a Presidential election was 1964. Nixon won New Hampshire three times. It may be true that New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada are key to the Democrats' fortunes in 2004, but if it is true they start out with a very difficult hill to climb. It is hard to imagine Howard Dean winning any of those states except maybe neighboring New Hampshire.
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