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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (3227)12/11/2003 6:22:49 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
USD weakness (requiring a currency defense)

Why do you keep saying this?
If you answered me before I somehow missed it.

If the US was all hot and bothered by a sinking US$ why on god's green earth would they be pressuring China to float the YUAN which would likely sink it?

Add 2 and 2 and what do you get?
The obvious answer is they WANT the US$ to fall.
A second acceptable answer is they do not care if it falls.

The only REASONABLE conclusion one can take from all these facts is US $ weakness will NOT require currency defense (except by the Japanese who are willing to do it for US!)

You assume
1) They HAVE to defend the US$

I assume
1) They do not HAVE to do anything
2) They MAY in fact actually want the US$ lower but for obvious reasons can not say it
3) They MAY not much care except in relation to the YUAN
4) They did not defend the US$ at 100, 97, 95, 92, or 90 why would they HAVE to defend it at 88, 85 or 82?
5) My personal belief is they really want it lower. Their actions SHOULD cause a reasonable person to conclude the same thing or at least ambivalance (at least at this point in time, perhaps they will care at 80 or 65 or perhaps not - who knows?)

I believe this argument is not even close, but please address that issue again for me, if you did it before, because we violently disagree about this point.

I am all in favor of "light". Shed some light on this topic for all of us, addressing my major points if you can.

Thanks

Mish
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