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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing

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To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (25412)	12/11/2003 11:11:33 PM
From: SwampDogg	Read Replies (1) of 39344

Wow, those are some pretty interesting questions to ponder and I will. Simply, the cycle is one of just boom (credit inflation) and bust (credit deflation). It is very predictable going back into the late 18th Century. You have to have the credit written down before a new boom can begin. The fact that there is so much debt out there makes it improbable that we can start a new boom cycle on top of this one. Politics would be irrelevant as the debt has to go. It either goes quickly (if rates were not lowered over the past few years) or slowly (like we are seeing now). The whole U.S. system and psyche is based on credit and this has to change before things improve. The cycle will not improve until people start saving more and spending less. <<Or, are you saying that the Fibonacci series is fatalistic and there’s a control beyond the control of man and his monetary policies? Is it possible for man to create a model that is beyond the fear and greed scenarios that applies to the reality of man?>> Great questions and Greenie is trying to prove that the latter is possible. I don't think that it is.

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