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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (3269)12/12/2003 8:30:01 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
This CI issue really hits the core of our discussion here lately. In support of my inflationary argument, the 10 UST/Fed funds yield spread chart on page six is illustrative, showing this particular spread at 25 year highs in that 3.25-3.40% area. Would seem that a "breakout" above 3.50% would send an undeniable inflation, big rate increase signal, although I feel 3.30% is signal enough. A more normalized Fed Funds rate at this point would be about 2.0% IMO, but even that will be behind the curve.

Ditto the 5 USN less 5 TIPS (page seven): 2.3% is at the high end, signaling much higher inflationary expectations. It's only going to get worse.
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