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Technology Stocks : Information Architects (IARC): E-Commerce & EIP

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To: Tech Master who wrote (1786)8/12/1997 11:03:00 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell   of 10786
 
TM, the Compuware deal is not just big, it's mind-bogglingly big. Both ALYD and Compuware signed off on a press release with the phrase: "...could possibly add an additional billion lines of code to our current contracts." And keep in mind that we are talking non-MVS COBOL (i.e. COBOL that does not run an IBM mainframe), which is almost always priced much higher per line of code than MVS COBOL.

Let's look at (conservative) best and worse case scenarios:
Worse: 500M lines (half the prediction) * .20/line (MVS rate) = $100M.
Best: 1B lines * .30 (discounted non-MVS rate) = $300M.

Assuming a burn rate of $25M per 250M lines, that's a profit of between $50M and $200M over 2.5 years, which is between $20M and $80M per year. If we assume more than a billion lines and/or a higher price per line and/or a lower burn rate per year, then the numbers just explode off the page. Considering that these numbers are in addition to the profit from the likes of MD, 3M and Nabisco, well, the mind reels, does it not?

So, yes, it is a BIG deal!

- Jeff
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