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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (15437)12/12/2003 11:30:42 AM
From: GraceZRead Replies (2) of 306849
 
You can call it data mining, but it's simply finding figures for what I've seen in occurring in the various industrial settings I've had the experience of visiting in person. There is nothing like watching a dozen guys with automated equipment do the work that used to take hundreds of men.

overall consumption is rising, the number of workers is rising.

I was talking about how much more efficient manufacturing is and how the fall in the prices of manufactured goods isn't completely due to low cost labor. It is due to processes that use fewer people and less energy to produce the same amount of goods. This means your projection that China will ramp up it's energy usage the same way the West did as it became industrialized or even the way Japan did, is flawed. It would mean that 20 years of progress in manufacturing would have to be forgotten. They aren't burdened with our legacy plants, they can bypass the old inefficient ways the same way third world countries bypassed wireline phone service and went straight to wireless.

The fact remains the US economy doubled in 20 years and twenty years later the oil consumption figure was the same. Something happened in that 20 years to change the way oil is used, the population grew by 26% and we almost doubled the number of cars on the road so it had to be a change in the way we create goods and services.

but oil production is no longer rising.

Meanwhile proven world reserves went from 676.7 thousand million barrels to 1050.3 in the period of 1982 to 2001 a 55% rise. Total world consumption went from 58,116 to 75,453 a 29% rise in the same period. Production grew by the same percentage as consumption, 29%. How could it not? The biggest rise in reserves was in the Middle East where the cost to lift is the lowest.
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