Re China
Liz, I think you are missing a crucial detail about Chinese industrialization --- energy.
Oil consumption in USA, per capita, per annum: about 25 barrels.
Oil consumption in China, per capita, per annum: about 1.5 barrels.
The plain hard cold fact of the matter is that China will never be able to get anywhere in the neighborhood of our level of oil consumption.
If they were to reach our level, they would add 89 million barrels to daily demand.
[1.3 billion people times 25 barrels per person equals 3.25 times 10 raised to the 10th power, divided by 365, equals 89 million. This means, if China were to reach our level, they would be consuming an amount of oil equal to a little bit more than present total world production.]
Even for the Chinese to reach 12 barrels per person per year, or around 45 mb/d, would require the production of SIX Saudi Arabias. Not gonna happen.
If you read that post from Jay Chan, recently mentioned on this board, you can see that China is already encountering problems of energy supply.
I recommend that you pour in another beaker, and think the matter through again. |
