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For Democrats, to Air Is Essential
URL:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60963-2003Dec12_2.html
Now they're all playing three-dimensional chess, studying one another's moves in market after market. "You can find out within minutes of someone going up what their competitive buy is," Trippi said.
Dean's war chest -- he recently announced plans to spend several million dollars in all the Feb. 3 states -- has created something of an arms-race mentality in which his rivals are having trouble keeping pace.
From Dec. 8 to Dec. 17, Dean is spending $440,000 on Iowa ads -- including 2,000-point levels in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Quad Cities. This means the typical viewer would see the ad 20 times during that period. Gephardt, for whom Iowa is a must-win state, is spending $100,000 from Dec. 9 through Dec. 15, with a maximum 500-point level in Des Moines.
"I don't think Dean's spending largesse in Iowa is that huge an advantage because the decibel level is very high anyway," said Carrick, the Gephardt consultant. "There's a certain neutralizing effect because so many people are on the air at such sustained levels."
But others say Iowa represents a potential problem for Dean. "You're seeing a candidate who's scared about what could happen there," said Margolis of the Kerry campaign. "I think they're hearing footsteps."
Kerry is spending $185,000 on Iowa ads and $74,000 in New Hampshire during the Dec. 9-15 period. Stressing the political importance of competing in both states, Margolis said: "The only formidable candidates who are doing that are John Kerry and Howard Dean." Edwards is also spending heavily in both contests.
The Kerry ads differ only in minor respects, Margolis said, such as placing a greater emphasis on the environment in New Hampshire, where acid rain is an issue, than in Iowa.
Unlike Dean and Kerry, who have opted out of public financing, Gephardt and the other contenders are subject to state-by-state spending limits. While these caps are often busted, resulting in fines long after the campaign, they do have an impact. "We had to come off the air for 31/2 weeks in Iowa to leave enough cap room," a Gephardt aide said.
Lieberman's modest spending reflects a lag in his fundraising and the fact that he skipped Iowa to concentrate on New Hampshire. But aides say he has husbanded his resources and plans a serious advertising push for Feb. 3 in South Carolina, Arizona, Oklahoma and Delaware.
Grunwald said her boss "had a lot of advantages in being a nationally known candidate who didn't have to introduce himself to voters around the country. We wanted to spend the money closest to the time when people were making up their minds."
Clark's late-starting campaign only recently began advertising in New Hampshire. He plans to try to match Dean's spending levels in South Carolina and Oklahoma, where he will spend $340,000 Dec. 9-15, and in Arizona, aides say. Clark is bypassing the Iowa caucuses.
"This will underscore the fact that Wes Clark is a national candidate," said spokesman Chris Lehane. Given the sizable proportion of African Americans in South Carolina, Native Americans in Oklahoma and Hispanics in Arizona, he said, "we specifically picked the three states that we believe the press, public and opinion-makers will see as reflective of the country."
Each campaign studies the impact of its ads with fierce intensity. Edwards aides say they began their advertising in August in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina for a simple reason: "No one knew who he was," said spokeswoman Jennifer Palmieri. Edwards strategists say he jumped in the South Carolina polls after they intensified their ad blitz.
Dean hit the airwaves even earlier, in June in Iowa, followed by an early-August launch in New Hampshire.
"All the other guys were saying we were idiots for going up in the middle of the summer," Trippi said. He said the early spots were tied to Internet-driven meetings that drew tens of thousands of supporters. |
