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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: GraceZ who wrote (15469)12/14/2003 3:05:06 PM
From: Elroy JetsonRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
OPEC requires supply cuts because of monopoly economics. Prices in excess of market equilibrium will always fail to sell all supply, regardless of the product - just ask De Beers.

Assuming oil is primarily inorganically formed, we are still depleting oil deposits at depths close to the surface faster than they are replenished.

When I worked at Chevron (1978-1983) Geologists became instantly livid over the topic of inorganic oil. Their entire education was based on the belief that hydrocarbon deposits were all formed from sedimentary plant deposits.

Most Geophysicists were supportive of the concept of inorganic hydrocarbon formation requiring pressure from much deeper depths. These formations are further modified by the action of bacteria which occupy strata far deeper into the crust than many would believe.

Chevron over-bid other firms for offshore California leases based on some aspect of this uncertainty and won huge new deposits of light crude. California crude is heavy crude, short on hydrogen. Offshore crude is now known to be light with more hydrogen, worth far more.

The ocean had lowered the temperature of these underlying deposits, but to what effect?

The Geophysicists believed the lower temperatures allowed greater bacterial degradation into lighter crude.

Geologists claimed the lowered temperatures of the strata slowed the boil-off of hydrogen components from the original sedimentary deposits.

Based on my experience, I'd always trust the Geophysicist. But this has little impact on economically viable oil reserves and even less on monopoly pricing.
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