S.C. primary vital to those chasing Dean
By LEE BANDY
Staff Writer THE STATE
The South Carolina Democratic presidential primary is shaping up to be a real brawl.
Call us the showdown state.
Already, rival candidates have started building a fire wall to stop the Howard Dean juggernaut, which seems to be gathering momentum every day. The endorsement of former Vice President Al Gore certainly didn’t hurt.
“It’s going to be a donnybrook, a knock-down drag-out,” says Clemson University political scientist Bruce Ransom. “I can’t see it any other way. South Carolina may be the last stand to stop Dean. The time is drawing near.”
The former Vermont governor leads the Democratic presidential race in the first two states that vote next month — Iowa and New Hampshire — but trails far behind in South Carolina, the first contest in the South, according to a poll released last week by the Pew Research Center.
Seven states vote Feb. 3 — South Carolina, Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota and Oklahoma.
Most of the focus is on South Carolina — the first state in which there is a large black population, the Democrats’ most loyal constituency. African-Americans are expected to comprise half of the state primary voters.
Key players in the stop-Dean movement are U.S. Sens. John Edwards of North Carolina, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, and, to some extent, U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, whose candidacy got a boost last week with U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn’s endorsement.
“The Gore endorsement certainly clarifies the field,” says Jenni Engebretsen, spokeswoman for Edwards. “The candidate who gets to take Dean on for the nomination is the candidate who wins South Carolina. That will be John Edwards.”
Former Democratic National Committee chairman Donald Fowler, in an interview on PBS’ “NewsHour” last week, predicted the party will have a candidate by the end of February, if not before.
“After Iowa and New Hampshire, we’ll have two or three people still in the race,” he says.
To prepare for battle, Dean has opened a state campaign office, started airing television ads, purchased the state’s voter list, and indicated he would seek 3,000 signatures rather than pay the $2,500 filing fee. Filing opens Dec. 19 and runs for two weeks.
Many see South Carolina as the defining primary.
“We could be the place where it happens,” says University of South Carolina Aiken analyst Robert Botsch.
He sees the fight magnifying the real division in the party — between the pragmatists whose goal is to defeat President Bush, regardless of what it takes, and the purists who put principle above winning.
Dean is in a strong position. He could carry Iowa and New Hampshire, still lose South Carolina and be a viable candidate.
“A loss here wouldn’t slow him down that much,” suggests Winthrop University professor Scott Huffmon. “But he cannot be left in the dust. A big loss here would take the wind out of his sails from which he could not recover.”
Gephardt, who won the caucuses in 1988, has placed most of his resources into Iowa in an effort to block Dean, get some momentum for New Hampshire, then win his home state of Missouri and score well in South Carolina and other Feb. 3 states.
“The others have to get some victories somewhere,” says Ransom. “Many are counting on South Carolina, and they can’t all do it.”
© 2003 The State and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved.
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