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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Rarebird who wrote (3392)	12/15/2003 12:56:52 PM
From: Alias Shrugged	Read Replies (1) of 110194

I am not as concerned with the Bush Administration as I am with the Fed (or maybe you consider them a package deal). The Fed seems terrified of deflation and is taking extraordinary measures. I fear just what lengths they will go to to avoid the deflationary event horizon. As one who shorts stocks and buys puts, I don't want to see the trashing of the currency result in higher US stock prices. I am starting to agree strongly with Mishedlo about the Fed waiting as long as possible before raising rates. (IE, they will need to be dragged kicking and screaming). I see the downfall of housing and housing stocks coming not from higher rates but simply a small yet quite effective shift in the supply/demand dynamics. We seem to be slowly eliminating well-paying jobs which are needed to support (continue buying) houses. If prices are determined at the margin, killing off potential buyers will eventually have an impact. The market will deflate despite still low interest rates. Mike

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