ONE DOWN, ONE TO GO: - EASTERBLOG
Early reports say the key clue to finding Saddam Hussein came in the region's time-honored way--a sell-out--and that raises the question, why hasn't anyone sold out Osama bin Laden yet?
Generally it is assumed, though, of course, the assumption could be wrong, that bin Laden is hiding in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan, a "tribal area"--Pakistanis themselves call it that--where the Islamabad government has little influence. It may be that bin Laden is living in a hotel in Paris. But now that Saddam has been found pretty much within spitting distance of where he was expected to be, this seems to raise the odds that bin Laden is where he is expected to be, too.
The NWFP borders Afghanistan and is ruled by local warlords in a system scarcely changed for centuries, except that satellite dishes have been added. The area is mountainous and the road system poor. Highways leading into the NWFP are two-lane at most, one-lane in many places, and wind-through passes, where rockslides are common. Vehicles move in and out of the area at 30 miles per hour, max, and monumental traffic jams, paralyzing the highways for hours when one thug or warlord in his Toyota Land Cruiser refuses to yield at an intersection to another thug or warlord, are standard. I got stuck in a momentum traffic jam on an NWFP highway once, and it took our Jeep several hours to creep a half mile. Ahead, two groups of thugs were arguing, guns waving, about which would yield to the other at a narrow curve.
I mention these topographical details because they render it impossible to conduct raids in the NWFP--one reason government influence there is minimal. Raiders approaching in Humvees would be seen hours in the distance, and the approach roads readily blocked. Raiders in helicopters would also be seen and heard well before they could land. Helicopters approaching the NWFP are assumed hostile by local warlords; Pakistan Army attempts to assert jurisdiction in the region using heli-borne troop landings have always been foiled because the warlords know helicopters are coming. By this point probably half the herdsmen and highwaymen who work the areas around the towns of the NWFP have satellite phones and assurance of payments for each time they call in an alert on a helicopter approach.
So military units simply can't sneak up on the place where bin Laden is assumed to be hiding, or gradually surround it and tighten the noose, as the 4th Infantry seems to have done in the town where Saddam was captured. The best chance is to rely on someone within the NWFP selling bin Laden out.
Why hasn't that happened? The warlords of the NWFP have lived by mutual betrayal for as long as can be remembered. There's a $25 million price on bin Laden's head. And surely if he's there he poses a power rival to the local leadership structure--why wouldn't they want the guy, and the unwelcome attention he brings, out? Easterblogg considers this a leading mystery.
The primary reason local clans of the NWFP would sell bin Laden out is money. In that regard, the U.S. officer who boasted yesterday that he had saved the taxpayer $25 million by getting the key information on Saddam via a confession, not a voluntary tip, may have inadvertently diminished the chance of someone selling out bin Laden. The United States should pick an Iraqi recipient for the $25 million and hand the money over pronto. If this had a salutary effect in the NWFP, it would be a bargain.
tnr.com |
