Hi Michael D. Cummings; Re: "Hi Bilow, are these latest predictions going to be filed next to your prediction the U.S. would never invade Iraq?"
If Bush had understood the consequences of invading Iraq, he wouldn't have gone in. I knew the consequences, and I thought he did too. In fact, plenty of people who worked for him knew what would happen, but their voices were ignored. Here's what I was saying before the war:
Bilow, December 6, 2002
As far as resistance goes, there are two different things to calculate / estimate. The first is the degree of military opposition (will the Iraqi military fight back). The second is the degree of civilian opposition (will the Iraqi population support Iraqi "freedom fighters" against an occupying force).
I believe that the Iraqi military would fight back, to a certain extent, but the US has more than enough power to crush them fairly quickly anyway. The problem is in the civilian support for "freedom fighters".
As far as whether this will happen or not, I don't think it is even necessary to argue it. Our troops are already getting shot up regularly in Kuwait, where our relations are the best in all of the Arab, if not Moslem world. In the face of these incidents, to expect that our troops will not face an Iraqi intifada is optimistic at best. #reply-18310807
Bilow, March 5, 2003
Hi Sig; It's all fantasy. Everyone knows, Saddam included, that his forces are no match for ours. That's why he's so willing to destroy those missiles.
The dangerous part of Iraq is their civilians, not their military. The problem weapons, as far as a US occupation goes, are rifles, grenades and pistols. #reply-18657990
Bilow, March 6, 2003
That was a hell of an article. Here's some selected quotes for those who think that occupying a hostile nation where the civilians follow a nutcase religion and are armed to the teeth is child's play:
... #reply-18667372
Bilow, March 7, 2003
...
I've noted before that the belief that the residents of Baghdad will come out with flowers for us is a delusion. Also note that I predicted within a few days of 9/11 that the Afghans would greet us with flowers. The difference is simple.
... #reply-18671309
Bilow, March 24, 2003
...
Back in WW1, it was possible to kill large numbers of soldiers by grinding them up at a stationary war front. But the Iraqis do not have a sufficiently strong military to create a front that would last the years required.
Instead, we'll be in Baghdad in days, if not weeks. And faced with a sullen, unbeaten, unbowed population that will shoot the shit out of us, just like Vietnam.
... #reply-18743807
And now I say that the resistance will continue unabated, and that it will continue until we leave, and that if we leave Iraq with a regime that is compatible with our national interests, the resistance will continue against that regime, and eventually overturn it.
-- Carl
P.S. Maybe you believe differently. Okay, tell me what month of the war will see fewer coalition (i.e. foreign CPA troop) casualties than, for example, the 31 deaths December 2003? My reason for specifying coalition troops is that these numbers are conveniently available on MSNBC.
And here's what you were saying about the Iraq war before we went in:
Michael D. Cummings, March 2, 2003
Here's my timeline.
Within 3 months America defeats Saddams army, kills him and we march into Baghdad among cheering crowds and flags a waving.
Within 5 months we instill an Iraqi leader and a form of representative government.
There are set-backs, rivalries and such for another 7 months. Then agreements are made to form a new government around the principles of this Iraqi Constitution.
Actual elections will be more than a year away, but the framework and principles of democratic governance will be in place.
Will that suffice to constitute a "democracy" John?
Ahhh, if only I were King. :) #reply-18647023
March 24, 2003
Carl, you're so fixated on Vietnam it has blinded you. This will be no Vietnam. This is not the Vietnam military, it's far better trained, better equipped and better led. Those who fixate on one event in history, and fail to see the changing circumstances will look foolish when this is all over. #reply-18744494
So what's the "one event" that you fixated on? The liberation of Kuwait, perhaps? |
