December 16, 2003
ECONOMY
Firms to Boost Hiring
In the First Quarter
By SUSAN CAREY
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
During the first quarter of 2004, more U.S. employers expect to boost hiring than to reduce jobs, according to a bellwether survey conducted quarterly by staffing titan Manpower Inc., building on improving trends that began earlier this year.
The temporary-staffing agency said it has been five years since hiring expectations rose between the fourth-quarter survey and employers' outlook for the first quarter, when seasonal variations are taken out of the data. "We're still not at levels of company hiring that we saw throughout most of the '90s," said Jeffrey A. Joerres, chairman and chief executive of Manpower. "But we're moving in the right direction."
The Milwaukee-based concern, which surveys nearly 16,000 public and private companies in more than 460 domestic markets, said 20% of the employers intend to add jobs in the first quarter, while 13% plan to reduce jobs and 61% expect to make no changes. Mr. Joerres said the optimism extends to all regions of the country and to nine of 10 industry sectors polled, compared with expectations going into the current quarter.
Employers in the West are the most bullish, while those in the Midwest are the least. Only public-administration employers expect fewer job additions in the first three months of 2004, compared with the current quarter. Adjusting for seasonal job fluctuations, first-quarter hiring enthusiasm is particularly strong in the construction and wholesale and retail sectors.
But Mr. Joerres also noted the trends in the manufacturing industry. Adjusted for seasonality, 13% more durable-goods manufacturers intend to hire than to reduce jobs in the first quarter, compared with the current period. In the fourth-quarter survey, 7% of manufacturers intended to add jobs. "That's a big shift," he said. The jump was almost as big for nondurable-manufacturing intentions.
In the poll taken before the current quarter, which is normally a more-buoyant period for hiring than the first quarter, 22% of employers said they anticipated increasing jobs and 11% foresaw reduced job levels.
Write to Susan Carey at susan.carey@wsj.com1
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