Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (8326)	12/16/2003 10:24:05 AM
From: chomolungma	Read Replies (1) of 25522

Gottfried, Here's the Merrill note: Semiconductors Upping the Ante We are raising our semiconductor device and semiconductor capital spending forecasts for 2004. Our top-down macro analysis and bottom-up survey work suggests that current estimates are too low. Semiconductor device revenues are now forecast to grow by 23% YoY in 2004, up from our previous 18% forecast. We note that our aggregate bottom-up company revenue estimates trail the top-down analysis slightly. That’s good news, as our macro analysis has historically been a good leading indicator for our company estimates. Semiconductor capital spending growth is now forecast at 30% YoY for 2004, up from 27% previously. Equipment spending growth should hit 35%, up from our earlier 30% number. Our company estimates trail the top-down forecast here as well. The higher base for 2004 results in a slower growth forecast for 2005. Our growth estimates are reduced from 21% to 16% for devices and from 33% to 22% for equipment. We do caution investors that 2005 is still a long way away. . . The implications for stock price performance are positive – stocks in both the semi and equipment businesses have historically tracked industry growth Joseph Osha

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