Saddam futures net profits for the 'longs'
By Adrienne Roberts
FT.com site; Dec 15, 2003
Futures contracts linked to Saddam Hussein's capture were settled on Monday, netting a tidy profit for anyone who took a "long" position on the former dictator's arrest.
The contracts, offered by the Dublin-based exchange TradeSports, paid investors $10 a contract for the capture of Mr Hussein, and paid nothing if he was still at large when the contract expired.
Contracts for settlement in December, January, March and June all paid out.
At the beginning of this month the December contract cost 50 cents. An investor with $100 to spend could have bought 200 contracts, receiving $2,000 when the news came in.
The June contract had been trading at a price of about $3 before the capture, indicating that the market gave a 30 per cent probability to an arrest by the end of June.
The June Osama bin Laden contract - betting that the Al Qaeda leader will be captured or "neutralised" by the end of June - is currently trading at $2 to $2.50.
Tradesports allows users to trade futures linked to anything from shares and commodities to the outcome of the Martha Stewart trial.
It may even give some clues to the next US presidential race. "The market is currently pricing in a 5 per cent probability of Hillary Clinton winning the democratic nomination even though she's said she's not running," said John Delaney, TradeSports chief executive.
Still, he adds that since the capture of Mr Hussein, the probability of George Bush retaining his presidency has risen more than three percentage points to 68.1 per cent.
EMAIL THIS PRINT THIS MOST POPULAR
Search powered by
= requires subscription to FT.com |
