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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Noel de Leon who wrote (121710)12/16/2003 9:40:34 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
Pity you didn't understand then that the 1956 prediction that US oil production would peak in the 70's in fact occurred in 1970.

First off, I'm referring to Global oil production. And unlike the US, where oil exploration had pretty much been complete, there remains significants portions of the planet that have not been.. Certainly not with the new 3D and 4D mapping technology.

But even in the US we see some parts of the country increasing production even as other decrease:

findarticles.com

And global oil production for that same period:

findarticles.com

And there is another flaw to the prediction. It doesn't take into account the self-inflicted production limitations environmental regulation and restrictions inflict. Need I remind you of ANWR, the California and Florida coasts, and much of the Rockie mountains being off limits to oil and gas exploration?

This doesn't seem to be the problem in other parts of the world.. Certainly not in the deserts and scrub of the Mid-East and Africa. But it is a problem in places like the Amazon Basin, where environmentalists have sought to make those areas off-limits to exploration and production..

Yes... someday we'll probably exhaust the planets readily available oil reserves as our technology reaches the limitations of its usefulness...

But we also forget that technology can also assist in making old oil wells breath again, since most of the early ones were poorly operated and over-produced. Gas repressurization and slant drilling make it possible to more effectively exploit a deposit.

But most of all, it depends upon the stability of the price of oil. If companies believe they can make a profit exploring and exploiting oil deposits, oil production will increase, or at least be extended out.

So while his prediction may have been correct vis-a-vis the US, one can not just blindly only look at the actual production figures to predict peak production limits.

Hawk
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