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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (3526)	12/17/2003 12:23:00 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (6) of 110194

Date: Wed Dec 17 2003 12:02 trotsky (crude oil) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved a new life-of-contract high in the January WTI crude futures contract - presages the recession that is likely to begin early next year IN SPITE of it being an 'election' year. in this context note that interestingly, both bulls and bears seem to agree that neither the markets nor the economy can possibly tank in '04. i beg to differ - China's crack-up boom which is the result of interaction with the US current account deficit is highly likely to go ker-splat in '04 ( even if only temporarily, i.e. likely a Chinese version of the Russian crisis ) . therafter, the last prop holding the ailing patient together will have disappeared. it's the one thing that could actually dethrone GWB ( barring an 'unforeseen' turrst event ) in '04 - an economic and stock market free-fall.

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