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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (43579)12/18/2003 4:54:57 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Ray, the Gordian Knot was impossibly complex to deal with. But really, the solution was very simple. To untangle the electricity Gordian Knot, just let people do what they like [with the environmental and risk management provisoes].

Some things appear very complex, but are actually very simple.

I shall now recount a story told to me by a BP colleague who worked at BP's Baglan Bay chemical works. In the early days, 3 staff cafetarias were built and management established a plan, allocating individuals and times to each cafetaria so that there wouldn't be overcrowding, queues at some times and empty at others, with people unable to get their lunch in time to get back to work. After much planning and organizing, rules and processes, they opened for business. There was a fair shambles.

So, they did what Kremlinite Central Planners hate = they let everyone decide for themselves what to do.

In a few days, people soon figured out the cafetaria that suited them, the colleagues they wished to sit with, the time best suitable for them and generally ended up with just the right way of doing it. The problems went away.

A similar mob rule concept is seen in designing pathways. Watch where people choose to walk and build the path there. Traffic engineers finally figured that out for traffic islands too. They put loose traffic islands in, see where they get crunched and realign them accordingly.

Mob rule seems to get fairly good outcomes unless there is a commons to be destroyed, [pollution, depletion, spectrum noise and the like]. It's called democracy. Which isn't good for minorities or minority interests, but it's usually pretty good. People doing what they want to do. It's anathema to control freaks. But people like doing what they want to do.

Cut the Gordian Knot Ray. Freedom is a wonderful thing. It beats Kremlinite Central Planning any day. I know it seems simplistic, shockingly elementary and unsophisticated. Some things really are simple. Markets for example. When there is a shortage, the price goes up. In surplus, prices go down. It's as much a law of nature as gravity.

Mqurice
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