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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use
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To: fedhead who wrote (3874)12/18/2003 8:39:06 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (3) of 4905
 
How reliable is this Elliott wave stuff anyway

it is extremely reliable in hindsight--history is written by the victors, after all. take ten analysts that have ten different interpretations of what this or that wave is. wait a couple years and see which one was right. that's the accurate monkey. the other nine monkeys will have complex variations on "the dog ate my homework" which excuse their inaccuracies.

the only problem is that there's no persistence to this accuracy/inaccuracy. accuracy is just luck which is randomly distributed to the monkeys. imo one would have better luck tracking the Poisson distribution of Slothrop's conquests to predict future market movements.

the fact that Prechter failed miserably in his earlier predictions may mean he's on the money now. after all, he's due for some random success. if he were ALWAYS wrong, he would be just as valuable as someone who is always right.

such is to say i would not dismiss his current contentions out of hand. one thing he has going for him is that almost nobody else believes what he says can happen. five sigma events are unlikely to be a crowded trade.

if people had true persistence with these systems, they'd have a "money machine". as such, they would guard their secrets and make free money instead of selling their pearls for a few kopeks to all comers.
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