Art,
re: To assume, as some analysts have, that this is strictly a commodity business, is far too simplistic. What I'm saying, and what many others on this thread also acknowledge, is that SanDisk has enough of a technology edge--some of it proprietary--to remain competitive, probably for several years. SanDisk is not about to go down the tubes.
You have to acknowledge, given past performance, that when capacity growth exceeds demand growth in this market, the stock price declines. It's a fact, Jack. And of course the opposite is true, as has been demonstrated this year.
The question is, will capacity growth exceed demand growth. There is a lot of speculation on this thread, both ways.
There are two significant variables that will determine the stock price and I suggest nobody (on this thread) can predict those variables.
So IMHO it's a crap shoot. SanDisk is a great company in a great high growth industry. But it's anything but a slam dunk.
Like it or not Art, it behaves like a commodity.
John |
