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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 78.32-0.1%Jan 30 9:30 AM EST
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (65128)12/19/2003 3:26:07 AM
From: Paul V.  Read Replies (1) of 77400
 
mindmeld, Dorsey Wright, point and Figure technical analysis does not project a time. It only projects what the technical charts suggest according to the vertical and horizontal calculations. From my experience in the past it appear that the cycle runs approximately 12-18 months. Even Value Line only projects five years out. DW is purely based on supply and demand regarding stock price during a normal market whether it is a bull or bear market.

If you go to Quicken or WSJ electronic edition and calculate the average pe for the last ten years, eliminate the top and bottom two years multipled by the expected EPS you also get some price calculations. However, I have never discovered how to measure the investors psychology of buying or selling. PE, IMO, is the emotional aspect of the investment process. Wish I had the answer. The BTB semiconductor numbers just came out at 1.04, a good number. However, how the market will read the glass as half full or have empty today no one knows. I expect it will be positive and investors jumping on board, but who knows the psychic. The European CNBC tonight was saying that corporations were in the process of replacing their obsolete equipment which they bought for Y2K. If this is true then we could really get a pop.

Just my opinions.

Paul
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