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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Tommaso who wrote (271407)12/19/2003 4:03:29 AM
From: Oblomov  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
T,

I looked at historical data and could not find such a relationship.

economagic.com

It looks like MZM declined *after* the 1987 crash (may have had something to do with the S&L crisis and the rise in bond yields), and then again in 1994-5, when bond yields rose yet again.

Of course, the decline in each case was not as rapid as the current decline in absolute terms. Maybe they were about as rapid in relative terms.

Are there earlier precedents? I recall reading that the bear markets of the 70s were often preceded by a decline in free reserves. But, at that time, the Fed had specific targets for money aggregate growth rather than a goal determined by the estimated NIARU.
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