Analysis: Fighting Dean unscathed in polls
By Martin Sieff
UPI Senior News Analyst
WASHINGTON, Dec. 19 (UPI) -- Howard Dean is nothing if not bold. The very week he had to ride out a storm of criticism from his party rivals over his remarks on the capture of Saddam Hussein, he took on Bill Clinton too.
Speaking in Manchester, N.H., where the first presidential primary will be held on Jan. 27, Dean explicitly repudiated President Bill Clinton's famous 1996 claim that "the era of big government is over."
The former Vermont governor then went of his way to say he was not criticizing the Democrats' only twice-elected president since Franklin Roosevelt and that he wanted "to move the country back to the middle" where it was under Clinton, not further to the left. But his comments looked certain to outrage Clinton loyalists all the same.
However, Dean's tough talk in a state where he is riding rapturously high in the polls looks likely to just cement his already strong and expanding base within the party nationwide. And it will likely give the lie to concerns we have explored in previous UPI Analysis columns that he was triangulating to the center too soon.
In Manchester, Dean unleashed a scathing counterblast to the criticism he has received from his trailing and increasingly frustrated rivals for the party's presidential nomination, ridiculing them for wanting "to declare victory in the war on terror" because Saddam had been captured.
Dean's fighting words put on hold and may damage his long-term strategy to make peace with his party's old Clinton-era establishment. As recently as Monday, he announced the formation of a foreign policy team almost entirely staffed with former senior Clinton officials, including ex-national security adviser Anthony Lake and Morton Halperin, who ran policy planning at the State Department.
But such moves have failed to mollify old party establishment figures. The New York Times Friday reported a virtual avalanche of senior Clinton allies and loyalists such as former White House chief of staff Leon Paneta, former Clinton spokesman Joe Lockhart former party chairman Robert Strauss all claiming Dean didn't have the party's nomination sewn up, that his language was unfortunate and intemperate and that Saddam's capture may have weakened him.
In response, Dean returned to the angry rhetoric he has used on the stump over the past nine months about President George W. Bush and his Iraq policies that has so delighted the grass-roots activists who have swept him from discounted underdog to the dominant front-runner of the Democratic pack.
Dean indeed took pains to make clear he was not repudiating Clinton's record and governing style during the 1990s, but argued that it was inadequate for rolling back the aggressive conservative policies Bush has energetically implemented since then. "To fight the Bush tax cut, Democrats need to do more than damage control," he said. " ... I think we have to enter a new era for the Democratic Party, not one where we join Republicans and aim simply to limit the damage they inflict on working families."
In fact, Dean's momentum appears unaffected by Saddam's capture and the storm over his comments that it didn't made Americans any safer or help the war on terror at home.
On Friday, he picked up a heavyweight endorsement from New Jersey Gov. James E. McCreevey. Populous New Jersey matters a lot in the Electoral College and is one of the last states to hold its primary on June 8, little more than a month before the Democratic National Convention in Boston in July.
McCreevey rates low personal poll numbers, but the Dems did well in its middle-class suburbs in November's state Legislature elections. Those are exactly the target demographics Dean is aiming for nationwide.
Following former Vive President Al Gore's endorsement, McCreevey's stamp of approval, coming at the very time old Clinton loyalists are attacking Dean, sent a welcome message for the Dean camp. And it contrasts with Louisiana Sen. John Breaux's shots at Dean also given to The New York Times.
Meanwhile, Dean continues to ride high with the people who really matter to him at this point, the potential voters in the coming primaries. A poll for the Boston Channel WCVB announced Tuesday, and -- significantly -- taken after Saddam's capture showed the former Vermont governor continuing to widen his already commanding lead in New Hampshire.
The poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center gave Dean 46 percent of the vote with his nearest rival, Sen. John Kerry from neighboring Massachusetts, still flat-lining at around 17 percent as he has for the past five months.
Another New Hampshire poll from the American Research Group released Thursday had Kerry doing a little better at 20 percent, up from 13, but with Dean still commanding 45 percent.
Polling figures this week from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, big states with meaty votes in the Electoral College and representative of the Northeast and the Midwest, brought more good news for Dean.
A University of Wisconsin poll conducted in the state Sunday through Tuesday showed Dean's support leaping to 33 percent from only 13 percent in September, with retired Gen. Wesley Clark slumping from 18 percent to 11 percent. In Pennsylvania, a Quinnipiac University poll also showed the former Vermont governor surging with 28 percent, with Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman trailing far behind with 10 percent each.
With all of this, it was just a little bit more icing on the cake that Dean doesn't have to worry about being embarrassed as some kind of spoiled, ignorant rich frat boy. U.S. News and World Report Friday revealed a Yale University transcript showing "the former Vermont governor got pretty decent marks: seven honors, 17 high passes and 14 passes. His grades climbed steadily through his New Haven years." And they look to compare favorably with those of that other well-known Yale alumnus, President Bush. |
