Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (43693)	12/20/2003 1:22:31 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Hi Jay, You look like one man conglomerate with that level of diworsification. Statistically speaking, it's been shown that as a speculator spreads the bet in smaller and smaller tranches, that the odds of beating the market decrease exponentially. To paraphrase Jesse Livermore on the art of speculation, it's important to put your few eggs in one basket. And then watch that basket very, very closely. I'm wondering how you can possibly keep abreast of the news and nuance of the dozens of disparate markets you seem to be dabbling in? In each and every market that you participate in, there are other traders who are spending their entire concentration and focus on just that one slice of one industry alone. If superior information is what gives the winning edge, how can you possibly compete with specialists when you have only 1/20th of your time to concentrate on any one tranche or dollop? As Warren Buffett so brilliantly put it, when entering a market, the first thing you need to ask is who is the designated sucker. If you can't say who that is, it's you.

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