Doren and Herb,
Since I first asked the question, please allow me to give some input into the relevant time frame. When I was speaking of the recent up market, I meant the past "about" one or two months or so.
Go back to Doren's chart and recalibrate it for 50 (or even 100) days and you will see what I mean--Apple underperforming the NASDAQ by around 20%.
FWIW, it is only in the past week or so that I recall the NAZ 100, QQQ, outperforming Apple this year. Until recently Apple was well ahead (year-to-date). In the past week or so it dropped below and is now almost 10 percentage points behind QQQ YTD.
Maybe it's a good time to pick up some Jan, Feb, or April calls--if the optimistic outlooks are correct.
One last point, and I am hesitant to share this, but I would say about 2/3 of the time or more, especially when a "good" quarter is anticipated, Apple runs up precipitously a week or two before earnings and then almost always drops as soon as earnings are announced, even when better than "expected". Last quarter: 20.57 close on 10/2; over 25 on earnings day, 10/15; and quickly back to 22 range. Maybe some day, I'll try to make a buck there.
KIP |
