VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)

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To: da_cheif™ who wrote (26161)	12/21/2003 4:28:03 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) of 27311

how do you spell reverse hed n shoulders....above 5 its gone It's an error to look for reversal patterns before the original wave has completed its full tour. One can look at VLNC's chart and identify Nov. '02 as count 1, May '03 as count 3, and since Oct the stock has been forming a count 5 distribution top. In Oct., on Fri the 13th, the stock made a volume thrust which had no carry through. Then it traded way under daily average volume. In December the stock is churning due to distributive selling which could be interpreted as a right shoulder. The money flow structure is, like it is with many NAZ stocks, horrible. It's a miracle the stock only churns but this price propping is due to the amateur public getting pumped from the company's potentially provocative fundamental developments. On Oct 1 money flow which had been already sinking started down hard creating a pronounced divergence between price and flow. The elastic state has been and remains levered to the down side. There's too many orders being put in the book below relative to current selling intensity. Further, when market orders to sell hit they go off at the best bid. Not so with market orders to buy. They go off below the best ask, and the difference in VLNC is one of the worst on the NAZ. Most NAZ stocks are being distributed at the best ask. The only constructive thing in the money flow structure is the net flow of neutral ticks, and represents sentimental buying induced by market wide psychology. On a longer term basis VLNC has rallied up underneath its '98 -'99 bottoms. If the stock fails in its '03 parabolic rise at its current level as suggested by the above comments, it could fall for the next 16 months down to its long term neckline at $.40. That would be consistent with the bear view that the move up since Oct '02 is only a bear market rally. On the other hand all the above is only what the market has done and what interpretations suggest assuming persistent state. If the company signs big deals, the state will blow out of those bounds and kick the bearish argument into a cocked hat.

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