FWIW........some of my TA notes on AAPL (picking up on several recent posts:
1. In the initial rise from the March-April lows into mid-October, AAPL far out-performed the COMPX. AAPL almost doubled, while COMPX rose by about 50%.
2. After the recent decline into the 20 area, AAPL is up about 57% from its April low....COMPX, as of Friday, was about 56% higher than its March lows.
3. See, therefore, no basis for any view that AAPL has in any way lagged the broad market.
4. Also, see no basis for any view that AAPL has formed a H&S top. Among other things, the volume pattern does not validate any H&S..
5. AAPL's weakness since the 25 level reflects heavy resistance overhead from the first half 2000 and first half 2002 action in the 20-27 area, and also......very importantly....from the long-term downtrend line, drawn through the March 2000 and September 2000 highs, which was touched at the 25 high in October.
6. Looking ahead, AAPL is approaching its 200 day SMA (now 19.36 and rising), where it should be getting support, as well as support at the early July and early August lows.
7. Key areas to watch here: support at the 200SMA (as noted), and ability to exceed overhead 20 and 50-day SMAs (now a little below 21 and 22) .
8. MOST important......whether AAPL can break out of its long-term downtrend line (now about 24 and falling)
9. Technical position of AAPL at this time is showing a positive divergence, with lows of past few days not confirmed by either RSI or MACD.
PS.... I'm long (obviously......g) |
