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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.

AAPL 259.95

-0.4%

Jan 14 3:59 PM EST

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To: Don Green who wrote (38753)	12/22/2003 12:01:49 AM
From: HerbVic	Read Replies (1) of 213182

Well, weak argument or not, it is none the less true. The market share numbers that put Apple at 2.5% are World computer sales. Not just box makers. There are major portions of that market in which Apple does not compete. Hence, citing Apple's 2.5% share is grossly misleading. I certainly agree with you that growing market share is a measure of growing popularity, and from the company's current position would be unquestionably important to growing net profits. I simply disagree that World computer sales is the correct market share measure. As for dying or declining base, I'm more concerned about what I term "performance saturation." The computers being sold since the turn of the millennium should satisfy the needs of the average household for years to come. Both the delta strength and delta frequency of the aggregate upgrade cycle point toward a maturing market overall. I see Apple's R&D efforts and their retail efforts as having been effective enough to increase market share in the core markets in which they participate, despite the fact that their customers (the Apple faithful) are upgrading less frequently and sometimes not at all. The conversions are important, and on the fringe of Windows loyalty, are taking place. If they weren't, Apple's sales would be down by around 25%. I guess the question on everyone's mind is wether or not Apple is building strength ahead of the reported numbers. I think they are. I also think that the marketing deals that will come with the iTunes Music will be far more valuable to Apple than just selling a few more iPods. The street will be impressed when the money shows in real numbers. Remember the summer Apple retired the bonds? HerbVic

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