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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (20712)	12/22/2003 6:02:52 AM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (1) of 793755

Nadine, some thoughts about what Sharon's up to. Doing down Arafat, that's what. He's laying the groundwork for something, I just can't tell what at the moment. Both the Israelis and the Palestinians are making noises as if the Palestinians are being threatened with something, but I cannot see what. Those Palestinians who are at war with Israel will be forced by this to become "formal" about it and must carry the whole population with them. Right now, they are getting support from the Palestinian population, or at least enough of it, to carry on a "low cost" war. If the wall goes up then it becomes a matter of direct attack with more conventional weapons and response by Israel with same. I doubt if they would get support from the Pals for direct engagement with the Israeli army across the length and breadth of Palestine. The non fanatics would just stay home and let the Israelis wipe out the others. If Israel is attacked by Pals in a conventional way, then they will be defeated and the model would look much like Iraq and the US or perhaps Germany post WW2. That's a possible scenario. The Europeans and Arabs might whinge about it but what's done is done. A unilateral withdrawal to lines of Israel's choosing, with not even a worthless promise made in exchange? Why should Arafat object to that? See above. He'll be forced from mere terrorism to conventional warfare. Something I suspect he has no competence at doing. If Arafat doesn't attack Israel after the wall goes up what will his platform be? He only has one tool and policy and won't be able to implement or use them effectively. Take a look at Palestinian polls - you can see his problems growing if the wall goes up. So the Palestinians will have to switch to missiles, why should they care? If their Euro backers have never called them on blowing up pizzerias, what's a few missiles? What's a few missiles? The wall makes for a longer standoff. Home made stuff isn't going to suffice. They get the more advanced weapons from the Syrians or whoever, they can attack from further away but so can the Israelis and far more effectively. Artillery tracking radar means they get only one attack away and the response is instant utter destruction of the launch site and serious collateral damage.

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