China emerges as world's workshop, to consolidate gains in 2004
SHANGHAI : China's economy is set firmly on course for another strong year in 2004, with the country emerging as the unquestioned workshop of the world as it produces an increasingly sophisticated range of goods.
After a difficult start, China rebounded sharply from a SARS-induced slowdown in the first half when the outbreak of the disease caused billions of dollars of losses, especially in the tourism and service industries.
The pick up since has been so strong, with growth running at 9.1 percent in the third quarter alone, that some analysts have pointed to the dangers of overheating while the authorities have moved to curb some of the froth seen in the property and auto sectors.
Success brings its own reward but also problems, with Beijing likely to face continued charges from its major trading partners, principally the United States, that it keeps the yuan deliberately undervalued so as to boost exports.
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Long accused of inflating its growth figures, China ironically now finds itself in the somewhat enviable position of being accused of dumbing them down.
"I do believe that GDP is underestimated and is running at more than 10 percent," said BNP Paribas chief China economist Chen Xingdong.
For 2004, despite the concerns at possible overheating, economists say they expect the current momentum to continue, but not increase, next year.
"Next year will be a year of consolidation in the economy's growth. It will definitely not accelerate further," said Chen, who predicts about 9.0 percent growth.
- AFP
channelnewsasia.com
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The bottom line is: There is no sound national statistical system in China now, so the statistics is not reliable. The Chinese government has not deliberately manipulated the GDP or any other figures. |
